{"id":4063,"date":"2021-11-17T12:09:11","date_gmt":"2021-11-17T17:09:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/projectmanagementacademy.net\/resources\/?p=4063"},"modified":"2023-10-24T12:32:53","modified_gmt":"2023-10-24T17:32:53","slug":"probability-of-occurrence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/projectmanagementacademy.net\/resources\/blog\/probability-of-occurrence\/","title":{"rendered":"Probability of Occurrence"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Project Managers use a combination of experience, insight, and quantifiable data to assess potential project risks. In project management, determining the probability of occurrence is one factor in the overall risk assessment and planning work. For the Project Management Institute\u2019s (PMI) Project Management Professional (PMP)\u00ae certification exam, and as part of continuous skill development, it is important to understand risk assessment and how it leverages the probability of occurrence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-1 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><strong>On this page:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/projectmanagementacademy.net\/resources\/blog\/probability-of-occurrence\/#risk-assessment\">Risk Assessment and Management<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/projectmanagementacademy.net\/resources\/blog\/probability-of-occurrence\/#probability-defined\"><em>Probability <\/em>Defined<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/projectmanagementacademy.net\/resources\/blog\/probability-of-occurrence\/#probability-formula\">Probability Formula<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/projectmanagementacademy.net\/resources\/blog\/probability-of-occurrence\/#calculation-example\">Probability Calculation Example<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/projectmanagementacademy.net\/resources\/blog\/probability-of-occurrence\/#impact-assessment\"><em>Impact Assessment<\/em> Defined<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/projectmanagementacademy.net\/resources\/blog\/probability-of-occurrence\/#matrix\">Probability and Impact Matrix<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/projectmanagementacademy.net\/resources\/blog\/probability-of-occurrence\/#emv\">Estimated Monetary Value (EMV)<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/projectmanagementacademy.net\/resources\/blog\/probability-of-occurrence\/#challenges-of-risk\">Challenges of Risk<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/projectmanagementacademy.net\/resources\/blog\/probability-of-occurrence\/#pmp-exam\">Probability and Impact for the PMP\u00ae Certification Exam<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/projectmanagementacademy.net\/resources\/blog\/probability-of-occurrence\/#pmp-question-example\">PMP\u00ae Certification Exam Question Example<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"risk-assessment\">Risk Assessment and Management<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Calculating risk is both an art and a science. Project managers are responsible for identifying risks for projects and managing the work to maximize, prevent, and\/or mitigate them. Why would risk be managed to maximize the impact? If it is deemed a favorable risk or in other words, an \u201copportunity.\u201d Perhaps the risk leads to the outcome of reduced costs or being first to market thus increasing sales. All risks are not bad and some lead to innovations and positive outcomes. For risks with a potential negative impact, referred to as \u201cthreats,\u201d the project manager should guide the work to prevent or mitigate the chances of it occurring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background\" style=\"background-color:#e7f5fe\"><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>              Risk<\/strong>                     <\/td><td><em><br><\/em><em>An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on one or more project objectives.<\/em><em><br><\/em><em>\u2013 <\/em><em>Source PMI.org lexicon <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pmi.org\/pmbok-guide-standards\/lexicon\"><em>https:\/\/www.pmi.org\/pmbok-guide-standards\/lexicon<\/em><\/a><em><br><\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-2 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:40%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/e360-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/2022\/01\/21103157\/PMP-Formula-Cheat-Sheet-809x1024.png\" alt=\"PMP Formula Cheat Sheet\" class=\"wp-image-4712\" width=\"296\" height=\"374\" srcset=\"https:\/\/e360-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/2022\/01\/21103157\/PMP-Formula-Cheat-Sheet-809x1024.png 809w, https:\/\/e360-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/2022\/01\/21103157\/PMP-Formula-Cheat-Sheet-237x300.png 237w, https:\/\/e360-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/2022\/01\/21103157\/PMP-Formula-Cheat-Sheet-768x972.png 768w, https:\/\/e360-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/2022\/01\/21103157\/PMP-Formula-Cheat-Sheet.png 1010w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 296px) 100vw, 296px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:50%\">\n<div style=\"height:48px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>PMP\u00ae Exam Formula Cheat Shee<\/strong>t<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-14690051-2796-4b03-bcb7-95d54bd01fcd\"><em><em>Learn how to successfully use project management formulas after reading this cheat shee<\/em>t.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<script>\n\t\t\t\t\t\thbspt.enqueueForm({\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tportalId: 3294842,\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tformId: \"730482d7-eef5-49c7-aa16-898785e241ee\",\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\ttarget: \"#hbspt-form-1776454852000-4580581883\",\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tregion: \"na1\",\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t});\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/script>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"hbspt-form\" id=\"hbspt-form-1776454852000-4580581883\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:10%\">\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Assessing a risk is part of what is sometimes referred to as \u201cprobability of occurrence pmp.\u201d One of the first steps in a risk assessment is examining each risk and determining if it is an opportunity or a threat. <a href=\"https:\/\/project.pm\/expected-monetary-value\/\">For risk assessment, it must have a risk-neutral assumption for proper judgment between opportunities and threats<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background\" style=\"background-color:#e7f5fe\"><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Opportunity<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Threat<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Favorable Outcome<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Negative Outcome<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">&nbsp;+ Value<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Value<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><figcaption><strong>Risk Type<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>From here, the project manager needs to do a risk assessment of the probability of that each risk could happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"probability-defined\"><em>Probability <\/em>Defined<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A risk has the potential for a favorable outcome or a negative outcome, and in either case there is an outcome that should be considered during planning. Project Managers, including those working to earn a PMP\u00ae credential status, need to know the meaning of probability as part of risk assessment efforts.<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background\" style=\"background-color:#e7f5fe\"><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Probability <\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><em>Likelihood of an event occurring<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Project managers use tools like expert judgement or historical information from past projects to determine the probability of a particular risk occurring. Probability matters for risk assessment and management because if there is a low probability of a risk, resources may need to be directed towards those risks with a high probability of occurrence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"probability-formula\">Probability Formula<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The probability of occurrence formula, also known to some as the \u201cprobability of occurrence formula PMP\u201d is a tool for determining the chance that a given risk will occur. The formula requires two data points: number of favorable events possible and the total number of events possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"576\" height=\"96\" src=\"https:\/\/e360-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/2021\/11\/17103820\/image-11.png\" alt=\"The Probability of Occurrence is a formula that takes the number of favorable events that can occur and divides that by the total number of events that can occur.\" class=\"wp-image-4065\" srcset=\"https:\/\/e360-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/2021\/11\/17103820\/image-11.png 576w, https:\/\/e360-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/2021\/11\/17103820\/image-11-300x50.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 576px) 100vw, 576px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>As with all project management tools, the probability of occurrence formula PMP is directly impacted by the accuracy of the data used within it. It is a simple mathematical calculation, but if the risk assessment work is lacking in considering the occurrence of risk, the result is not useful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"calculation-example\">Probability Calculation Example<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Anyone who has been part of a \u201clet\u2019s just flip a coin\u201d has in fact used the probability of occurrence formula.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"202\" height=\"202\" src=\"https:\/\/e360-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/2021\/11\/17103915\/image-12.png\" alt=\"Probability of Occurrence Calculation Example\" class=\"wp-image-4066\" srcset=\"https:\/\/e360-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/2021\/11\/17103915\/image-12.png 202w, https:\/\/e360-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/2021\/11\/17103915\/image-12-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/e360-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/2021\/11\/17103915\/image-12-70x70.png 70w, https:\/\/e360-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/2021\/11\/17103915\/image-12-100x100.png 100w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 202px) 100vw, 202px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>A coin has two sides: one side&nbsp;(\u201cheads\u201d) is Side A, and the other (\u201ctails\u201d) is Side B. The coin is tossed in the air, and the question is, what are the chances, the \u201cprobability\u201d if you will, that it will land on Side A. This is that moment when a coin is tossed in the air and witnesses say quickly \u201cHeads!\u201d or \u201cTails!\u201d reflecting their guess as to which side will land face up. In project management terms:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Total number of events = 2 (because the coin can either show Side A or Side B)&nbsp;<\/li><li>Total number of favorable events = 1&nbsp;<\/li><li>The probability of showing Side 1 = (Number of favorable events) \/ (Total number of events)<\/li><li>= 1\/2<\/li><li>= 50%<\/li><li>Probability of showing Side A is 50%&nbsp;<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Probability is one dimension of risk. A risk assessment is incomplete without the other risk dimension: impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"impact-assessment\"><em>Impact Assessment<\/em> Defined<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Impact value is the term for the cost to the project if a risk occurs. It is always expressed as a monetary value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background\" style=\"background-color:#e7f5fe\"><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Impact Value<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td><em>Cost of work and resources used to address an identified risk when it occurs <br>\u2013 Source <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/project.pm\/expected-monetary-value\/\"><em>https:\/\/project.pm\/expected-monetary-value<\/em><\/a><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"matrix\">Probability and Impact Matrix<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A risk can impact both costs and schedule. A probability and impact matrix, or as some call it, the probability and impact matrix PMP, connects the probability of a risk and the impact of that risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background\" style=\"background-color:#e7f5fe\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Probability and Impact Matrix<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td><em><br><\/em><em>A grid for mapping the probability of occurrence of each risk and its impact on project objectives if that risk occurs.<\/em><em><br><\/em><em>\u2013 <\/em><em>Source PMI.org lexicon <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pmi.org\/pmbok-guide-standards\/lexicon\"><em>https:\/\/www.pmi.org\/pmbok-guide-standards\/lexicon<\/em><\/a><em><br><\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>With insights around probability and impact, the risk assessment work moves to determining the monetary value of risk for the entire project.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"emv\">Estimated Monetary Value (EMV)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The risk dimensions, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pmi.org\/learning\/library\/describing-probability-limitations-natural-language-7556\">probability of occurrence (uncertainty) and impact (effect)<\/a> are captured in the Estimated Monetary Value (EMV) formula. EMV is <a href=\"https:\/\/pmstudycircle.com\/a-short-guide-to-expected-monetary-value-emv\/\">a statistical technique in risk management used to quantify risks and calculate the&nbsp;contingency reserve<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"596\" height=\"81\" src=\"https:\/\/e360-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/2021\/11\/17104158\/image-13.png\" alt=\"Estimated Monetary Value can be calculated with the Probability and Impact values in the Probability of Occurrence formula.\" class=\"wp-image-4067\" srcset=\"https:\/\/e360-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/2021\/11\/17104158\/image-13.png 596w, https:\/\/e360-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/2021\/11\/17104158\/image-13-300x41.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 596px) 100vw, 596px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The greatest weakness in the EMV formula is in the accuracy of probability and impact values. The strength of the EMV formula is providing a means to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pmpmath.com\/emv.php\">quantitatively prioritize a risk within a set of known risks<\/a>. With the risk identified, and each assessed by probability of occurrence and the impact value, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pmpmath.com\/emv.php\">estimated monetary value can be determined with these steps<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\" type=\"1\"><li>Assign a probability of occurrence for the risk.<\/li><li>Assign monetary value of the impact of the risk when it occurs.<\/li><li>Multiply the values produced by step 1 and step 2.<\/li><li>Add values to the project cost to calculate total EMV.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>There are many tools and modeling techniques for risk assessment. It is important to understand the concepts behind risk assessment so that the right tool or model can be selected, and of course, in support of PMP\u00ae certification exam questions around core risk concepts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"challenges-of-risk\">Challenges of Risk<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The probability of occurrence formula may be easy math, but PMP\u00ae credential holders and experienced project managers know there is much more to consider. The PMI\u00ae paper \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pmi.org\/learning\/library\/describing-probability-limitations-natural-language-7556\">Describing probability: the limitations of natural language<\/a>\u201d authors provide these insights around common challenges in risk management work for project managers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"has-normal-font-size wp-block-heading\"><strong>Uniqueness<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>\u201c\u2026All projects are&nbsp;unique&nbsp;in some respect\u2026This is particularly true of project risks, which affect project objectives. This means that some (many?) risks on a particular project will be unique to that project, and there will be no relevant data on their probability of occurrence.\u201d <em>(excerpt from <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pmi.org\/learning\/library\/describing-probability-limitations-natural-language-7556\"><em>Describing probability: the limitations of natural language<\/em><\/a><em>)<\/em><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"has-normal-font-size wp-block-heading\"><strong>Lack of actuals<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>\u201c\u2026Of course some risks on a given project will have arisen previously, since not all aspects of every project are completely unique. However even for these risks, data are often not available from previous projects due to the weakness of the project closure process in many organisations&#8230; Without such \u201crisk actuals\u201d from previous projects, the task of assessing the probability of risks which recur on a later project is made more difficult.\u201d<em> (excerpt from <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pmi.org\/learning\/library\/describing-probability-limitations-natural-language-7556\"><em>Describing probability: the limitations of natural language<\/em><\/a><em>)<\/em><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"has-normal-font-size wp-block-heading\"><br><strong>Unknown risks<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>\u201c\u2026Sometimes risks are identified for which some details are inherently unknowable, including for some risks the probability of occurrence. This can arise where occurrence of the risk is dependent on influences outside the project (such as the decisions and actions of other stakeholders or competitors), or where the project team lack the necessary knowledge to understand and assess the risk, or in the case of uncertain events which are in the realm of pure chance.\u201d <em>(excerpt from <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pmi.org\/learning\/library\/describing-probability-limitations-natural-language-7556\"><em>Describing probability: the limitations of natural language<\/em><\/a><em>)<\/em><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"has-normal-font-size wp-block-heading\"><strong>Estimating vs. measuring<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>\u201c\u2026further problem with assessing risk probability is that risks are possible future events that have not yet occurred, and as such their probability of occurrence cannot be&nbsp;measured&nbsp;but can only be&nbsp;estimated.&nbsp;However such estimates tend to be influenced by a wide range of subjective and unconscious sources of estimating bias, making them unreliable.\u201d <em>(excerpt from <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pmi.org\/learning\/library\/describing-probability-limitations-natural-language-7556\"><em>Describing probability: the limitations of natural language<\/em><\/a><em>)<\/em><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>It is important to know the probability occurrence and impact value for each risk. It is equally important to keep the challenges of risk assessment top of mind to better manage the project work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"pmp-exam\">Probability and Impact for the PMP\u00ae Certification Exam<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>For the PMP\u00ae certification exam, questions may provide students with the probability of a risk occurring and then ask students to calculate the financial impact of risk on a project. Determining the probability of a risk is outside the scope of PMP\u00ae certification exam questions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"pmp-question-example\">PMP\u00ae Certification Exam Question Example<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background\" style=\"background-color:#e7f5fe\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Question<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>A<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>B<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>C<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>D<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Unfortunately, risk analysis was not done regularly by the previous manager of a project you inherited. As you are performing the project work, you and your team are reviewing all potential risk events, and analyzing their current probability and impact. Which of the following best describes what you are doing?<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Critical path method (CPM)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Risk re-assessment<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sensitivity analysis<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Expert judgment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>You are conducting interviews with key project stakeholders to assess the probability and consequences of identified risks to the project objectives, assign a risk score to each risk, and create a list of prioritized risks. Which process are you performing?<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Quantitative Risk Analysis<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Plan Risk Management<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Identification of Risks<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Qualitative Risk Analysis<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Studying for the PMP Exam?<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-horizontal is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-1 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 is-style-fill\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-text-color has-background\" href=\"https:\/\/projectmanagementacademy.net\/free-pmp-questions\" style=\"border-radius:2px;background-color:#366194\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PMP Practice Questions<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:8px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Answers<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The answer is <strong>B<\/strong>. Risk re-assessment involves reviewing the various risk events to determine whether their probability or impact has changed since your initial assessment (done during planning). This is an important part of Monitor Risks, and should be performed regularly throughout the project.<\/li><li><strong>D<\/strong>. The purpose of Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis is to determine what impact the identified risk events will have on the project and the probability of occurrence. It also puts risks in priority order according to their effects on the project objectives and assigns a risk score for the project. Finally, this process examines the timing of the risk events so those which are upcoming in the near future can be addressed first.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Risk assessment is a challenging task that requires intuition, experience, and qualitative data to provide reliable inputs to the overall risk management process and work. With proper risk management, project managers can assess and prioritize hazards so the &#8220;Probability of Occurrence PMP&#8221; is low. They can formulate mitigation and contingency plans according to the probability of occurrence pmp and implement them in the most economical way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:45px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<p style=\"font-size:25px\"><strong>Upcoming PMP Certification Training &#8211; Live &amp; Online Classes<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\"><table class=\"table table-striped table-bordered table-responsive-sm font-md mt-5 mb-0 d-none d-md-table\"><tr><td>Name<\/td><td>Date<\/td><td>Place<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><\/table>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:45px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:25px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Project Managers use a combination of experience, insight, and quantifiable data to assess potential project risks. In project management, determining the probability of occurrence is one factor in the overall risk assessment and planning work. For the Project Management Institute\u2019s (PMI) Project Management Professional (PMP)\u00ae certification exam, and as part of continuous skill development, it [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4075,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4063","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pmp-formulas"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Probability of Occurrence - Project Management Academy Resources<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"On the PMP Exam, you can expect to see the Probability of Occurrence formula. 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